Chesterfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXUS63 KDTX 160353
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1153 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will be
possible overnight.

- Increasing temperature trends this weekend into early next week.
High confidence for temperatures in the 80s Monday and Tuesday.

- Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms over the weekend and
early next week with low confidence on timing and coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies remain in place early tonight before currently ongoing
convection over the upper Midwest is set to arrive early morning.
Exactly how well this convection maintains itself into SE MI still
carries uncertainty so have kept Prob30 groups. That said, it does
look probable that there will be isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms crossing at least a portion of the area. Dependent on
the morning activity, there is a window Saturday afternoon for widely
scattered convective development towards the Ohio border up into the
Detroit area as a surface warm front lifts nearby- chances increase
with lesser morning rain.

D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms expected through early
tonight. An embedded thunderstorm will be possible with shower
activity 11-14z. Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible between 16-
18z Saturday afternoon, but confidence is very low in the wake of
the morning activity.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms Saturday morning.

* Moderate for ceilings aob 5000ft Saturday morning, low by
  afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather this afternoon and evening as mid-level clouds stream
out of the region early this evening, leading to a brief period of
clear skies a brief period of clear skies. Lows drop into the low
50s.

Attention for tonight will turn to convective initiation across the
Plains, specifically monitoring upscale growth that is expected to
occur across Iowa. A pseudo-stationary turning to slow moving front
will serve as the focus for initial storm development, with activity
expected to grow upscale and congeal into an MCS/MCV as it tracks
downstream. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support this
evolution by increasing moisture transport and maintaining elevated
instability into the system. A convectively enhanced shortwave
associated with the storm complex is projected to move just south of
the state line but latest hi-res output still retains high PoP
coverage overnight across SE MI given some degree of elevated frontal
convergence and associated ascent, noting a tightening theta- e
gradient over SE MI 10-15Z, coincident with strengthening backed
flow through the mid and upper-levels. Strong mid-level lapse rates
and MUCAPE ranging between 500-1000 J/kg will help support convective
updrafts and will sustain thunderstorm potential overnight. However
any convection will be far removed from surface based instability and
will remain elevated, and noting the strengthening inversion around
5kft, any severe weather potential will be very low.

Low-end lingering shower potential will exist through the late
morning to early afternoon hours. most favorable near or south of
I-94, but a weakly capped environment looks to limit convective
potential through the day despite the uptick in instability. Zonal
flow through the low to mid levels will usher in the warmer
temperatures across the Plains into the Great Lakes, pushing daytime
highs in the mid 70s across the cwa, upper 70s into the urban Metro
region and up through the Tri- Cities.

A northwest Pacific wave will carve across the western US and
through the Rockies Sunday into Monday which will amplify ridging
across the the Great Lakes and eastern US through the early week
period. This will push 850mb temperatures towards 17C and will open
up Gulf moisture through the Plains and Great Lakes both Monday and
Tuesday. Some showers and storms will be possible Sunday along the
leading edge of the warm front with the isentropic ascent, with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday into
Tuesday. The uptick in warm air advection will help push
temperatures into the mid to upper 80s on Monday with another round
of above normal temperatures on Tuesday. Latest NBM output shows
potential for temperatures to reach near 90 or 90 into the urban
Metro area Tuesday, but confidence in this is low as it will be
predicated in early day shower potential and coverage. A cold front
sweeps through on Wednesday, returning temperatures to more normal
values while high pressure behind the front brings a period of dry
weather through the midweek.

MARINE...

Low pressure tracks across Ontario tonight, with a surface trough
extending well into the southern Plains at issuance. This leads to
downstream strengthening of the pressure gradient and increasing
southwest flow locally through the evening. Gusts peak around 20 to
25 knots. This system initially sends an elevated warm front across
the Great Lakes overnight, creating stable conditions over the cool
waters and allowing gusts to subside. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms develop west of the Great Lakes this evening, reaching
the local waters around daybreak Saturday. Variable winds expected
as convection comes through, with localized gusts over 30 knots
possible. A weaker signal exists for a second round of thunderstorms
early Saturday afternoon south of Lake Huron. Drier conditions
emerge by Saturday night with a brief period of split flow across
the lakes as a cold front drops in from the north and the southern
stream ridge strengthens. Ultimately the southern stream wins out
and brings seasonably warm/unstable conditions to the Great Lakes
early next week. Breezy southerly flow is expected Monday-Tuesday
along with shower and thunderstorm chances before a cold front
mid-week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......AM


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.